Projections of stipendiary clergy numbers

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The table below shows the end of year projections for the number of stipendiary clergy estimated to be working in the diocesan framework from 2007 to 2011. These projections are calculated using formulae based on clergy actuals as at 31st December 2006, the number of clergy anticipating being ordained in 2007/8 and the averages of past clergy losses and gains.

Full-time equivalence of stipendiary clergy in diocesan ministry: 2000-2006 and projections 2007-2011

Year (Dec)

Men

Women

TOTAL

2000

8,320

1,170

9,490

2001

8,080

1,260

9,340

2002

7,870

1,330

9,200

2003

7,670

1,430

9,100

2004

7,430

1,470

8,900

2005

7,280

1,540

8,820

2006

7,060

1,570

8,630

2007

6,920

1,560

8,480

2008

6,770

1,620

8,390

2009

6,600

1,640

8,240

2010

6,430

1,660

8,090

2011

6,270

1,660

7,930

In each case, the figures above have been rounded to the nearer 10.

 

The losses in clergy numbers due to deaths in service and resignations in a year are likely to decrease in the future because they are dependent on the number of clergy at the start of the year, which is predicted to steadily decrease. Estimates of future retirement patterns are based on those of the last three years, with more weight being given to the 2006 figures. The average age for clergy has been increasing slowly over the last twenty years and now appears to be stabilising at approximately 50 for both men and women.

The most recent information available indicates that 287 ordinations will take place in 2007 and an estimated 323 in 2008. These figures have been assumed for the 2007 and 2008 projections. For the years 2009 to 2011 a moving average of the previous five years’ stipendiary ordination figures has been used. Ordination numbers are estimated several years ahead in consultation with the theological institutions and dioceses and there will be factors influencing these figures that cannot be anticipated at this stage.

The likely number of other entrants to stipendiary ministry is also uncertain. These include those transferring from non-stipendiary ministry, chaplaincies, returning from a period outside ministry or coming from other provinces. In the absence of any strong evidence it has been assumed that the number will remain close to recent levels for the next few years.  

Consequently, it is impossible to give exact predictions, but the evidence continues to point to a decreasing availability of stipendiary clergy over the next few years. The number of people entering stipendiary ministry is not expected to increase significantly and is more than offset by the large number of existing clergy who are approaching retirement. In contrast, the number of non-stipendiary clergy continues to increase.

The projected individual diocesan shares for the year-ends 2007 to 2011 are shown in the table Projections of diocesan shares. These figures should be viewed with great caution. They depend on the latest diocesan based government population projections and may fluctuate from one year to another. The projections should be treated only as pointers to future diocesan shares assuming that current national trends are maintained.

The supply and demand of stipendiary clergy is monitored annually by the House of Bishops.